Honest EV calculator
Most jackpot coverage quotes the annuity headline. This works the real number: cash discount, tax, and the fact that a bigger jackpot pulls in more players who would split it with you.
Expected value per ticket
$0.37
against a $2.00 ticket — you lose $1.63 per play on average (-81.5% return).
- Jackpot after cash option
- $98,440,000
- After federal + state tax
- $57,095,200
- Other tickets expected to hit
- 0.120
- Your share when it hits
- 94.2%
- EV from the jackpot
- $0.184
- EV from all lower tiers
- $0.186
Why this stays negative
Raise the jackpot and the EV climbs — until you also raise ticket sales, which is exactly what happens in reality. Sales scale superlinearly with the headline number, so the probability that someone else holds your combination grows faster than the prize does. The window where a lottery ticket is a positive-EV purchase closes itself. Try it: push the jackpot to $2,000M and sales to 600M and watch the split factor eat the gain.